A debt payment in my mind would be going to the principal. I'm talking about the interest payment on the debt. Two totally different things. The interest payment does nothing for the economy other than it is hard cash that leaves the economy and goes to the debt holders, which are usually foreign entities. The money does not stay home and go back into the economy. Same difference what is estimated this 2024 fiscal year interest payment of $1.2 Trillion benefit our economy ?
Thatâs not how loan amortization works. Itâs not the most interesting subject, but in my line of work I have to know how to create an amortization table. A payment on any debt first pays the interest on the current period (the time since the last payment) then the rest of the payment goes to the principal. Check any credit card, mortgage, or auto loan statement to see this.
Interest in any free market economy does everything for the economy. As I mentioned before, the economy and the money supply are mathematically the same thing. One really obvious way that the money supply grows is through loans and interest. And, the mechanism by which the Fed conducts monetary policy depends on this.
As for money âleavingâ the economy, if money supply and the economy are mathematically equivalent, then money canât leave the economy. This concept seems really counterintuitive at first. But, what is a foreign government going to do with US dollars? If they hold them, then they are investing in the US economy, the same way holding a stock makes you an investor. Their other option is to sell them, which by your thinking would be sending them back home. That would be like selling a stock - which Iâm sure you know - decreases the value of that stock via a rightward shift in supply.
Lastly, the vast majority of US debt holders are domestic. The Fed is the largest domestic holder of US debt. I checked and I think itâs around 23% of US debt that is held by foreign investors. I would politely suggest that your fear of these investors and your thoughts about US debt have a whiff of xenophobia.
A debt payment in my mind would be going to the principal. I'm talking about the interest payment on the debt. Two totally different things. The interest payment does nothing for the economy other than it is hard cash that leaves the economy and goes to the debt holders, which are usually foreign entities. The money does not stay home and go back into the economy. Same difference as importing oil and producing it domestically.
How is an what is estimated this 2024 fiscal year interest payment of $1.2 Trillion benefit our economy ?
The U.S. government is on track to spend more than $1 trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing military spending for the first time in history.
Interest payments on the national debt (held by the public in the form of Treasury securities) will cost the government $1.2 trillion in the government's fiscal year ending in October, the Treasury Department said in a monthly report on the budget.1 Net interest outlays are the third costliest item in the budget behind Social Security and Medicare benefits.
Economists have grown increasingly concerned about the potential impact of those payments on the U.S. economy. Interest payments took up 2.4% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product in 2023, and The Congressional Budget Office estimates that could swell to 3.9% over the next 10 years.
Why Is The Government Paying So Much Interest?
Two major factors have driven those payments skyward. First, the government spent trillions to support households and the economy during the pandemic, paying for it by borrowing rather than raising taxes. Second, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates starting in 2022 to fight inflation, which pushed up how much the government owes for that debt.
Although the Fed is set to gradually lower those interest rates starting next week, the pressure on the budget is likely to keep ratcheting up in the years to come.
Paying so much and borrowing so much just to make interest payments is certainly an issue Kurtster, that doesnt contribute positively to the US economy (as a whole).
If we have such a "strong" economy, why are we running deficits as % of GDP that we typically only see during wartimes? Plain and simple, we are borrowing $ (the govs and the bottom 50% of consumers) to support our lifestyles. And what are we spending on? Consumables, discretionary goods, defense, overly paying for medical car...not really making many good l-t investments. It's like when they say on average, my temperature is 99 degrees, but i've got my head in the freezer and legs in the oven.
And everything I read has Trump's agenda pushing deficit higher than Harris' and by about 2x.
As for why it doesnt matter (right now), there are many theories and many theories why it very may well soon matter...because it ultimately will matter. Powell and the Fed are concerned about debt, but that's not in their toolbox.
Here's a good article to explain where we are with the debt issue (go to archive for access)
https://www.wsj.com/politics/p...
Meanwhile, fiscal tightening from either party is not expected (best we can hope is split party control to limit tax cuts/spending increases).
A debt payment in my mind would be going to the principal. I'm talking about the interest payment on the debt. Two totally different things. The interest payment does nothing for the economy other than it is hard cash that leaves the economy and goes to the debt holders, which are usually foreign entities. The money does not stay home and go back into the economy. Same difference as importing oil and producing it domestically....
Not really....
As of April 2024, foreign countries own approximately $7.9 trillion<1>in Treasurys â or 22.9% of total US debt.
kurtster wrote:
Two major factors have driven those payments skyward. First, the government spent trillions to support households and the economy during the pandemic, paying for it by borrowing rather than raising taxes. Second, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates starting in 2022 to fight inflation, which pushed up how much the government owes for that debt.
Although the Fed is set to gradually lower those interest rates starting next week, the pressure on the budget is likely to keep ratcheting up in the years to come.
Your suggestion is that COVID is driving the debt...which it is to some extent... but the tax cuts in 2017 are also driving it. You support the guy who wants to reduce revenues even more, but yet want to complain about the deficit. Pick a side of the fence... because right now you seem incapable of keeping your priorities straight.
I strongly disagree. The interest payment alone on the debt is now greater than the Defense Department's entire annual budget. Tell me how that has no effect on the economy ? And how it does not contribute to overall inflation ?
The Federal spending whether it’s on the military or on the debt has a positive effect on economic growth. The mechanism by which the debt will become a drag on the economy will manifest as no one wanting to hold 30 year treasury bonds. Right now that market is healthy enough. I don’t think there is any evidence there to suggest the debt is a problem (yet). No, I would not expect debt payments to affect inflation significantly. Inflation is a consequence of the money supply growing, which occurs because of the economy growing. But, the Fed has controlled inflation through monetary policy. That’s really the best way to deal with inflation. Trying to tune inflation via Federal spending is really a fool’s errand.
A debt payment in my mind would be going to the principal. I'm talking about the interest payment on the debt. Two totally different things. The interest payment does nothing for the economy other than it is hard cash that leaves the economy and goes to the debt holders, which are usually foreign entities. The money does not stay home and go back into the economy. Same difference as importing oil and producing it domestically.
How is an what is estimated this 2024 fiscal year interest payment of $1.2 Trillion benefit our economy ?
The U.S. government is on track to spend more than $1 trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing military spending for the first time in history.
Interest payments on the national debt (held by the public in the form of Treasury securities) will cost the government $1.2 trillion in the government's fiscal year ending in October, the Treasury Department said in a monthly report on the budget.1 Net interest outlays are the third costliest item in the budget behind Social Security and Medicare benefits.
Economists have grown increasingly concerned about the potential impact of those payments on the U.S. economy. Interest payments took up 2.4% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product in 2023, and The Congressional Budget Office estimates that could swell to 3.9% over the next 10 years.
Why Is The Government Paying So Much Interest?
Two major factors have driven those payments skyward. First, the government spent trillions to support households and the economy during the pandemic, paying for it by borrowing rather than raising taxes. Second, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates starting in 2022 to fight inflation, which pushed up how much the government owes for that debt.
Although the Fed is set to gradually lower those interest rates starting next week, the pressure on the budget is likely to keep ratcheting up in the years to come.
So if youâre worried about the debt and inflation ⦠you canât possibly support Trumpâs plans for continued tax reductions and a defacto national sales tax via tariffs.
Yeah, regarding that paradox about how people see the economy, and what the data shows.
i really don't get why people think Trump is better at economics. All his economic advisors are kooks. Peter Navarro? Give me a break.
My Dad is a Trumper. And, my Dad is obsessed with business. But, I asked him the other day, about how exactly a tax on a free market harms it? You know, tell me the math of how it's harmful. His response was, "I never thought about it before."
But, he dismisses me when I'm like "I'm an actuary." I disagree with how Trump thinks tariffs work.
Its baffling that someone who thinks they are good at business can argue that "other countries" pay the tariffs.
I strongly disagree. The interest payment alone on the debt is now greater than the Defense Department's entire annual budget.
Tell me how that has no effect on the economy ?
And how it does not contribute to overall inflation ?
The Federal spending whether itâs on the military or on the debt has a positive effect on economic growth. The mechanism by which the debt will become a drag on the economy will manifest as no one wanting to hold 30 year treasury bonds. Right now that market is healthy enough. I donât think there is any evidence there to suggest the debt is a problem (yet).
No, I would not expect debt payments to affect inflation significantly. Inflation is a consequence of the money supply growing, which occurs because of the economy growing. But, the Fed has controlled inflation through monetary policy. Thatâs really the best way to deal with inflation. Trying to tune inflation via Federal spending is really a foolâs errand.
As usual (what else could be expected of completely dimmed down bulbs) you all forgot the Russia and China sanctions that keep working extremely well, not only for the "American" people...
How about, for a change, you address what I was talking about, the interest on the debt and its direct relationship to inflation and its effect on the economy overall.
Different from what you're using to change the subject ... as usual ...
But that is how you experts roll ... so I guess we're done since you have no interest in what I am talking about.
Later ...
Interesting pivot, but OK.
The deficit has an impact on inflation...but inflation is running at 2.5% right now. That's not your (our) problem.
There are definite issues with the cost of running the government and entitlement programs, but none of these issues are silos. You can address revenue and expenses separately.
As for revenue... you need more. Any suggestion that reduced taxes sparks the economy is crap. The debt you're creating by putting money in the hands of the upper-middle class and above is driving inflation. Taxing the top 20% more, with the top 2% paying a great deal more, is a necessary and reasonable change we need to implement. That won't cover the gap.
We also need to enforce a draconian revision to healthcare. Healthcare is projected to increase to 20% of GDP by 2032. That's insane. The government needs to force reforms... limits on drug costs, medical invoices, and a lack of transparency. One price whether you pay cash or have insurance. Everyone should know what everything costs before insurance pays for it. The stock values of healthcare companies should be seen as safe, not growth opportunities.
To do this, you need to invest in the government. More experts. More intelligent people. Fewer call center staff... more AI. Destroying what little competency you have in the government is a permanent and fatal mistake. It needs to be run better, and the regulation needs to have common sense. We need a large functioning government to run a large, functioning country. Corporations can not be trusted.
So I agree that the deficit adds to inflation, but inflation isn't a problem right now.
If you think the costs are supposed to go down, you're going to be unhappy regardless of who takes over in January.
If you think inflation and the deficit are a problem, picking Trump will materially expand your problems vs. Harris.
The financial hypocrisy of the Right and the abandonment of fiscal responsibilities is part of the reason I no longer support most Republican candidates. They talk about the problems and push fear, but once elected immediately grab what they can for themselves and those who donate to them, and ignore the long-term impact of their immorality.
I strongly disagree. The interest payment alone on the debt is now greater than the Defense Department's entire annual budget. Tell me how that has no effect on the economy ? And how it does not contribute to overall inflation ?
So if you’re worried about the debt and inflation … you can’t possibly support Trump’s plans for continued tax reductions and a defacto national sales tax via tariffs.
How about, for a change, you address what I was talking about, the interest on the debt and its direct relationship to inflation and its effect on the economy overall.
Different from what you're using to change the subject ... as usual ...
But that is how you experts roll ... so I guess we're done since you have no interest in what I am talking about.
I strongly disagree. The interest payment alone on the debt is now greater than the Defense Department's entire annual budget.
Tell me how that has no effect on the economy ?
And how it does not contribute to overall inflation ?
So if youâre worried about the debt and inflation ⦠you canât possibly support Trumpâs plans for continued tax reductions and a defacto national sales tax via tariffs.
Because the inflation of prior few years resulted in overall prices increasing over 22% since 2019, when you would typically see a 10%-15% increase.
Half the population is in a recession, increasing their debt to support further spending (real median earnings are now just back to where they were in 2019). Those are the ones who are not "confident"
The other half have seen their investments continue to rise (nearly 60% of the population own stocks, but the bottom half of earners control just 1% of all stocks).
As for the Fed, they acted way to late to start raising rates...but appear to be not taking that chance with cuts.
Oh, in addition to rising consumer debt, there is also rising gov debt...debt to GDP is now ~100%, which most economists say is not sustainable. And neither party has a plan to address that.
You would need at least 3% growth and cutting the deficit to about $500b to make a serious dent in that ratio over the next couple of decades.
So while the "gov" has supported the economy with increased spending and lower taxes, our balance sheet is in piss-poor shape.
I suppose Iâm a little confused about this response.
I think the cause-correlation fallacy tells us that we canât back out the cause sentiments in surveys or polling from the data. Sometimes we can ask questions that give us an insight, but thatâs different.
Regarding the Fedâs timing, thereâs always criticism of that from someone. And, hindsight bias is difficult to overcome for those critics.
I do think the Federal debt is a concern, but thereâs no evidence yet that has had an impact on the current economy.
There is an amazing paradox going on right now that American's appear to just want to ignore or can't understand.
I think your other points are interesting, but Iâm narrowing your comments to this one point because what Iâm arguing is that I think this paradox you identified is there most or all of the time. I donât think most people really judge the economy based on data. Thatâs for us eggheads who like to analyzing spreadsheets. I think most people have more of a gut reaction to the economy that is often at odds with what the data tells us.
There is an amazing paradox going on right now that American's appear to just want to ignore or can't understand.
Yes, things cost more, but by several measures, things are fine to good.
- The median American worker in 2024 can afford the same goods and services as in 2019, plus an additional $1,400 to spend or save per year.
- Real consumer spending continues to exceed expectations, with overall personal consumption expenditure growing by 2.9% in the second quarter of 2024.
- 72% of Americans are likely to save for retirement in 2024, up from 68% in October 2022. Additionally, 71% are likely to save more toward an emergency fund.
- Tight labor markets continue to support employment and income levels.
70%+ of Americans say they are doing OK, yet only ~30% think the country is doing OK. How is that?
Well, you have one of the two candidates and all conservative media pushing fear. Trump is running around telling everyone the world is ending, but it's not. Any suggestion that you were better when he was in office is (for the majority) wrong. Not only were you in lock down while he was creating the largest deficit in history, but had he been in office there is little chance the US would have pulled through so well from the pandemic.
Prices are high...but so are wages. Also interestingly... Americans don't believe Biden/Harris when they suggest things have worked out fairly well. They again equate prices and inflation with their own finances...ignoring that they are making a lot more.
Trumps tax-relief and tariff ideas will punish all of those who want to complain about the price of things now, while saving more than ever. He's going to drive prices sky high... while not taxing the wealthy. People are too lazy, and now appear to lack the critical thinking skills to understand how policy impacts the larger economy.
